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HSRCPersistent High Altitude Aerial Platforms & Payloads: Private Industry & Defense Applications Forecast – 2010-2015
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Persistent High Altitude Aerial Platforms & Payloads: Private Industry & Defense Applications Forecast - 2010-2015

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Description

Flying a relatively inexpensive Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) over one area for months to years at a time has been called the “Holy Grail” of both commercial and military markets. Well, the persistent future is here technologies exist to prototype initial defense and commercial lighter-than-air capabilities, with fixed-wing UASs capabilities coming soon thereafter. This new in-depth report includes detailed analysis of today’s persistent market, its inhibitors, drivers, and opportunities, combined with penetrating technical examination of both flight platforms and payloads. This report is designed specifically to inform business and technology decision makers about this market’s significant potential. It details which technologies are ready, who can build them, US & foreign competition, coming market disruptions & which markets will be most profitable to 2015 and beyond. The new report covers a wide spectrum of upcoming military and private industry business opportunities in areas such as:

  • Counter IED
  • Missile Defense
  • Tactical Communications in Urban and Mountainous areas
  • Commercial Communications such as Cell Phone and Internet
  • Mobile Internet Protocol Television
  • Border Protection and Maritime Patrol
  • First Responders Communication and Surveillance Support
  • Satellite Radio without the Satellites
  • Google Earth-type Imagery on demand
  • And many more

Table of Contents

Download TOC as PDF
1 Administration 
1.1. Why Persistent Platforms?
1.2. The Market for Persistent Platforms
1.3. Scope of this Report
1.4. Basic Assumptions
1.5. Methodology
1.5.1. Research Team and Methods
1.6. Who Is This Report For?
1.6.1. Business and Civilian Government Leaders
1.6.2. Military Leaders
1.6.3. Persistent Aerial Platform Professionals
1.6.4. Payload Professionals and Market Analysts
1.7. About the Lead Analyst
2 Executive Summary
2.1. The Problem
2.2. The Solution
2.3. What is a Persistent Aerial Platform?
2.3.1. Heavier vs. Lighter-than-Air in the Stratosphere
2.4. Major Findings
2.4.1. Summary
2.4.2. Detailed Findings
2.5. Major Conclusions
2.5.1. Flight Vehicles
2.5.2. Culture
2.5.3. Commercial Issues
2.5.4. X-Prize?
3 Development Drivers
3.1. Triple-Use Systems
3.2. Unique Capability
3.3. Effective at Reduced Cost
3.4. Controllable, Dedicated, Specialized
3.5. Cost Effectiveness
3.6. Excellent Counter-Terror Tool
3.7. Reduces Number of People at Risk
3.8. Recognized Military Value
3.9. Next Big Commercial Aviation Market
4 Development Inhibitors
4.1. Commercial Competition (Mostly from Space)
4.2. Cultural Pushback
4.3. Airspace Restrictions
4.4. Radio Frequency Interference
4.5. Technical Challenges
4.6. US Government Budget Process
5 Business Opportunities
5.1. Early Adoption Profit Opportunities
5.1.1. Permanent Communications Relay Services
5.1.2. Direct Broadcast Entertainment (both Television and Radio)
5.1.3. High-Speed Internet Connections
5.1.4. Regional Earth Observation – Overhead Imagery
5.1.5. Traffic Monitoring
5.1.6. Gas-Oil Pipeline and Power Grid Control
5.1.7. Contamination and Environmental Monitoring
5.1.8. Natural Disaster Monitoring
5.1.9. Agricultural Optimization
5.1.10. Infrastructure Monitoring
5.1.11. Border and Maritime Control
5.2. Market Potential
5.2.1. Space Capability Market Share
5.3. National Security Market Opportunities
5.3.1. Tactical Beyond Line of Sight Communication on the Move
5.3.2. Wideband Reachback & Dedicated Strategic Communication
5.3.3. Persistent ISR & Red Force Tracking
5.3.4. Change Detection for Mines & IEDs
5.3.5. Blue Force Tracking
5.3.6. Battlespace Awareness
5.3.7. Counter-Pirate & Maritime Patrol
5.3.8. Foliage-Penetrating ISR
5.3.9. Signals Detection & Characterization
5.3.10. All Weather Imaging
5.3.11. Detonation/IR Detection & Characterization
5.3.12. Psychological Operations (PSYOPS)
5.3.13. Fleeting Target Strike
5.4. Aircraft and UAV Market Share Losses
6 Vendor and User Attitudes
6.1. Platform Vendor Attitudes
6.2. Payload Vendor Attitudes
6.3. User Attitudes
6.3.1. Military/Government Customer Attitudes
6.3.2. Commercial Customer Attitudes
6.3.3. Build it and They Will Come
7 Technical Potential
7.1. Heavier-Than-Air: Technology Challenges
7.2. Lighter-Than-Air – Technology Challenges
7.3. Potential Field of Regard/View
7.3.1. Sample United States Coverage from the Stratosphere
7.4. Flight Vehicle Survivability
7.4.1. Fixed Wing
7.4.2. Lighter-Than-Air
7.5. Payload Survivability
8 Satellites vs. Persistent Platforms
8.1. Similarities
8.2. Differences
8.3. Complementary Features
8.4. Cost
8.5. US Military
8.5.1. Space Community Culture
8.5.2. Culture Matters
8.5.3. Culture-Driven Sales Realities
8.5.4. Market Share Losses
9 Existing Technologies
9.1. Satellites
9.2. Aircraft
9.3. Balloons
10 Near-Space Flight Environment
10.1. Environment Summary
10.2. Environmental Challenges
10.3. Where to Fly?
10.3.1. Wind & Jet Stream
10.3.2. Regulation
11 The Case Against Traditional UAVs
11.1. Why Not Just Fly More UAVs?
11.1.1. Traditional UAV Limitations
11.1.2. Persistent Platform Advantages
12 Likely Operating Concept
12.1. Platform vs. Payload
12.2. Orbit or Operating Area
12.3. Payload Operation
12.4. Illustrations
12.5. Sample Missions/Services
12.5.1. Virtual Team Member
12.5.2. Backtracking
12.5.3. Commercial Imagery
12.5.4. Cell Phone Service
13 Emerging Technologies
13.1. Flight Vehicle Summary
13.1.1. Fixed-Wing
13.1.2. Lighter-Than-Air
13.2. Inherent Problems
13.2.1. Fixed-Wing
13.2.2. Lighter-Than-Air
13.3. Development History
13.3.1. Fixed Wing
13.3.2. Lighter-Than-Air
13.3.3. US Fixed-Wing Development Sponsors
13.3.4. US Lighter-Than-Air Development Sponsors
13.4. Persistent Fixed-Wing Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs)
13.4.1. UAS Platforms
13.4.2. UAS Payloads
13.4.3. Potential UAS Vendors
13.5. Persistent Lighter-Than-Air (LTA) Airships
13.5.1. Misperception
13.5.2. LTA Platforms
13.5.3. LTA Payloads
13.5.4. Potential LTA Vendors
14 Market Forecast by Missions
14.1. Basic Market Realities
14.2. Forecast
14.3. Commercial Missions Market Forecast
14.3.1. Satellite Telephone, Telecommunications & Cellular Telephone
14.3.2. Entertainment
14.3.3. Earth Sensing
14.3.4. Imaging & Mapping
14.3.5. Weather Forecasting & Earth Observation
14.3.6. Pollution Monitoring
14.3.7. Air Traffic Control
14.3.8. Earth Observation
14.4. Military Missions Market Forecast
14.4.1. Market Shift Causes & Results
14.4.2. Shifting Military Missions
14.4.3. UAS Priorities
14.4.4. Relevant Defense Spending
14.4.5. Peace Dividends
14.4.6. Funding Forecasts
14.4.7. Forecasted Profitable Market Areas
14.5. Homeland Security and Law Enforcement
14.5.1. Relevant UAS Capabilities
14.5.2. Land Border Surveillance
14.5.3. Coastal Security
14.5.4. Law Enforcement
14.5.5. First Responders and Disaster Recovery
14.5.6. Search and Rescue
14.5.7. Wildland Fire Suppression
14.5.8. Special Event and Area Protection
14.5.9. Tracking & Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID)
14.5.10.  Natural Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Recovery
15 Market Forecast by Technology
15.1. Platform Technologies
15.1.1. Fixed-Wing UASs
15.1.2. Airships
15.2. Forecast by Payload
15.2.1. US Remote Sensing Policy
15.2.2. Cellular Telephone Transceivers (Cell Phones)
15.2.3. Direct Broadcast Radio and Television
15.2.4. Optical Sensors
15.2.5. Radar
15.2.6. Lidar: Laser „Radar?
15.2.7. SIGINT & Electronic Warfare Systems
15.2.8. Anti-Ballistic Missile Weapons
16 Overview by Nation/Region
16.1. Canada
16.2. China
16.3. Europe
16.4. Germany
16.5. Israel
16.6. Japan
16.7. Russia
16.8. Saudi Arabia (and other rich, threatened governments)
16.9. South Korea
16.10. Switzerland
16.11. United Kingdom
16.12. United States
17 Glossary

Tables

Table 1 US Government Persistent Platform Market Share Forecast [%] 2009 2015
Table 2 Satellite Entertainment Service Revenue by [$Billion] 2009 2015
Table 3 NDIA Study Platform and Payload Combinations
Table 4 African Cell Phone Demand Forecasted Customers [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Table 5 Civil Space Budget by Nation by [$Million] for FY 2006-2007
Table 6 US Government Space Forecasted Spending by [$Billion] 2009 2015
Table 7 US UAS Acquisition Budget Forecast by [$Million] 2009 2015
Table 8 US UAS Operations & Maintenance Budget Forecast by [$Million] 2009 2015
Table 9 Payload Coverage Diameter [km] at Various Look-Up or Elevation Angles
Table 10 Payload Coverage Diameter [km] at Various Elevation Angles – Look-Up or Elevation Angle
Table 11 Potential Early Private and Homeland Security Markets 2009-2015
Table 12 Forecasted Worldwide Cell Phone Subscriptions [Billions of Subscribers] 2009 2015
Table 13 Forecasted Cell Phone Subscribers by Region by [Billions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Table 14 Forecasted Cell Phone Infrastructure Spending [$Billion] 2009-2015
Table 15 National Defense Industry Association – Potential Near-Space Missions
Table 16 DoD Prioritized UAS Needs FY2002
Table 17 DoD Prioritized UAS Needs FY2007
Table 18 US War on Terror Spending by [$Million] 2001 2009
Table 19 US Army Sensor Budget Forecast by [$Million] 2007 2013
Table 20 US Military Fixed-Wing UAS Forecasted Market [$Billion] 2009-2015
Table 21 US Military Persistent Platform Forecasted Market by [$Billion] 2009 2015
Table 22 Counter IED Forecasted Markets by Function [$Billion] 2009-2015
Table 23 Counter IED Forecasted Markets [%] 2009-2015
Table 24 US Missile Defense Agency Forecasted Budget [$Billion] 2009-2015
Table 25 US Homeland Security Requirements
Table 26 Tracking Mission (RFID) Forecasted Market [$Billion] 2009-2015
Table 27 European Cell Customers Forecast Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Table 28 US Cell Customers Forecast Low-Speed vs. High-Speed by [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Table 29 Estimated Populations in 2000 and 2030 [Millions]
Table 30 African Cell Customers Forecast Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Table 31 Chinese Cell Customers Forecast Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Table 32 Indian Cell Customers Forecast Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Table 33 Direct Broadcast Entertainment Forecasted Market [$Billion] 2009-2015
Table 34  US Remote Sensing Forecasted Market [$Billion] 2009-2015

Figures

Figure 1 US Government Persistent Platform Market Share Forecast by [%] 2009 2015
Figure 2 Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) Revenue (left) & US Unmanned Aerial Systems (right) Spending [$Billion] 2009 2015
Figure 3 Satellite Entertainment Service Revenue by [$Billion] 2009 2015
Figure 4 Developing Nations’ Cell Phone Demand [Millions of Subscribers] by Country in 2006
Figure 5 Developing Nations’ Cell Phone Demand Growth Rate by [%] by Country in 2006
Figure 6 Worldwide Cell Phone Subscriptions Outlook 2015
Figure 7 US Counter IED Spending in 2015 by [$Million]
Figure 8 African Cell Phone Demand Forecasted Customers [Millions of Subscribers] 2009 2015
Figure 9 Civil Space Budget by Nation by [$Million] for FY 2006-2007
Figure 10 Airships over Los Angeles
Figure 11 US Government Space Forecasted Spending by [$Billion] 2009 2015
Figure 12 US UAS Acquisition Budget Forecast by [$Billion] 2009 2015
Figure 13 US UAS Operations & Maintenance Budget Forecast by [$Million]       2009 2015
Figure 14 SwRI’s HiSentinel50 Airship in 2008
Figure 15 Payload Coverage Diameter at 20km Attitude (New York City Area)
Figure 16 Full Continental US Radio Coverage Possible From Aerial Vehicles at 20km with Five Degree Look-Up Angle
Figure 17 Partial Continental US Radio Coverage Possible From Aerial Vehicles at 20km with Five Degree Look-Up Angle
Figure 18 The Response Time of a Symmetrical Constellation of Remote Sensing Satellites
Figure 19 Space Data Corporation Balloon with Controller
Figure 20 Space Data Corporation Altitude Control Valve Assembly
Figure 21 Typical January US Jet Stream
Figure 22 Typical July US Jet Stream
Figure 23 Average Wind Velocities over the US
Figure 24 Payload Coverage Diameter at 20km Attitude (Baghdad, Iraq Area)
Figure 25 Capability Owner Determines Vehicle’s Responsiveness to Various Users by Programming a Payload Controller
Figure 26 Field of Regard (large) vs. Camera Field of View (small)
Figure 27 Several Cameras May Operate Independently
Figure 28 Radio Footprint Extends Across a Very Large Diameter
Figure 29 Sample Airship Profiles at Low Reynolds Numbers
Figure 30 Artist’s Conception of Global Observer on Station in the Stratosphere
Figure 31 QinetiQ’s Zephyr UAV
Figure 32 Boeing & QinetiQ Vulture Concept Flying Wing
Figure 33 Lockheed-Martin Vulture Concept
Figure 34 Photon Sieve
Figure 35 Nickel Photon Sieve Operating with Simulated Starlight
Figure 36 Corner Cube Mounted in Metal Frame
Figure 37 Artist’s Conception of LMCO High Altitude Airship over the US East Coast
Figure 38 LMCO Large Prototype Image
Figure 39 NSS Tethered Aerostat
Figure 40 Early NSS Upper Stage Graphic Showing Nearly Symmetrical Lens Shape
Figure 41 Current NSS Upper Stage graphic Showing Airfoil Shape, With Lower Stage   Inset
Figure 42 Sanswire-Tao StratelliteTM Platform
Figure 43 SkySentry Prototype Payload Return System.
Figure 44 SwRI’s CHHAPP Airship Inflated in a Hanger
Figure 45 SwRI Airship Ascending
Figure 46 StratXX Airship X-Station 100 Concept
Figure 47 Probable Early Commercial Mission Markets for Persistent Platforms
Figure 48 Forecasted Worldwide Cell Phone Subscriptions [Billions of Subscribers] 2009 2015
Figure 49 Fastest Growing Cell Phone Markets 2006
Figure 50 Forecasted Cell Phone Subscribers by Region by [Billions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Figure 51 Forecasted Cell Phone Infrastructure Spending [$Billion] 2009-2015
Figure 52 Military Missions Likely to Shift to Persistent Platforms
Figure 53 US DoD UAS Annual Funding Profile
Figure 54 US Military Fixed-Wing UAS Forecasted Market by [$Billion] 2009-2015
Figure 55 US Military Persistent Platform Forecasted Market by [$Billion] 2009 2015
Figure 56 Counter IED Forecasted Markets by Function [$Billion] 2009-2015
Figure 57 US Missile Defense Agency Forecasted Budget [$Billion] 2009-2015
Figure 58 Aerial Photograph from Actual Law Enforcement Operation
Figure 59 Tracking Mission (RFID) Forecasted Market [$Billion] 2009-2015
Figure 60 European Cell Customers Forecast Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Figure 61 US Cell Customers Forecast Low-Speed vs. High-Speed by [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Figure 62 Estimated Populations in 2000 and 2030 by [Millions]
Figure 63 African Cell Customers Forecast Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Figure 64 Chinese Cell Customers Forecast Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Figure 65 Indian Cell Customers Forecast Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] 2009-2015
Figure 66 Direct Broadcast Entertainment Forecasted Market [$Billion] 2009-2015
Figure 67 US Combined Remote Sensing Forecasted Market [$Million] 2009, 2012 and 2015
Figure 68 Japanese Prototype Unmanned Airship
Figure 69 High Altitude Airship “Berkut” Flight Vehicle
Figure 70 High Altitude Airship “Berkut” Projected Radio Coverage
Figure 71 Forecast Saudi Arabian Homeland Security Outlay Forecast by [$Billion] 2008 2018
Figure 72 South Korean Prototype Unmanned Airship
Figure 73  18,000m3 X-Station at Zeppelin Hangar in Friedrichshafen, Germany

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